Grounds for Protest & Protest for Grounds

WWED?  

What would Earl do?

Maybe it's having grown up watching Earl Weaver seemingly file a protest every couple of weeks, but I love protested games.  No manager should ever expect to win a protest.  Still, filing protest is a way to insist that rules are properly applied and to force the League (or now the Bud) to explain when they are not.

I don't know if (as TBS announcers Brian Anderson & Ron Darling conjectured) Mike Matheny removed reliever Mitchell Boggs from the NL Wildcard Game amid the heavy precipitation of beer bottles* because he was concerned about Boggs' effectiveness after such a lengthy delay, but were I he, I would have been on the field laying ground work for a protest of the Cardinals' own.

*Most desired MLB reactions to debacle: 1) Eliminate the Wildcard Game and, thus, 2nd wildcard, 2) Return of the paper cup and paper-cup popping after games.

No matter how egregious you believe the invocation of the infield fly rule was -- once made -- the Cardinals should not have suffered any tactical disadvantage due to the delay at the hands of Braves' fans.  The home team is responsible for providing a secure field.  

In the case of intruders on the field (think expansion Senators' last game, not drunk-on-the-field) a forfeit can be declared after 15 minutes (Rule 3.18).  Matheny went to change pitchers at about 12-13 minutes after debris started hitting the field.  Before making that move, he should have gone to the plate ump and said "we're approaching 15 minutes, when do we move to forfeit?"  He'd have been told that's not happening*.  Where upon Matheny could state, "well, I'm at a disadvantage here, my pitcher's getting cold, how 'bout you start calling strikes every 30 seconds until their hitter's ready to get in the box?" (reaching for an application of 6.02d)  Or as Earl would have stated, "I'm at a (bleep)ing disadvantage because of this horse(bleep).  If you don't start calling (bleeping) strikes every (bleepedybleeping) 30 seconds, I'm protesting this (bleeping) game, this is horse(bleep)."

*Indeed now that no post-season game can end before 8-and-a-half innings, the ump-in-chief could not have forfeited the game -- but Matheny should asked just to plant the idea of the situation being a serious that could under normal circumstances move that way.

No protest has more than a .0001% chance of being upheld -- for a post-season game square that.  But at least Matheny's protest would have been a protest about the application of the rulebook and the disadvantage that application put his team in.  Gonzalez' was about a judgement call (unprotestable) or the timing of that call.  

But here's the thing (as Rob Neyer inquired about tonight through twitter), the timing changed nothing.  The runners were halfway because the fly was too shallow to tag.  And if the infield fly was called before the ball had even peaked, they should have gone -- halfway because the ball was too shallow to tag.

Hall of Nearly Great -- Fernando

From the day I learned to read until I left for college, mornings meant cereal and box scores.  Occasionally there may have been some eggs or French toast, but page D7 was a constant.  I probably learned to read on page D7.

Yet, though my box score ritual was the same for over a decade, now, 25 years later, I only remember one particular instance of combing the box scores.  It was in May 1981 -- I suspect it was May 9^th, a Saturday.  As I play the scene back in my head, I at the table, my mother behind me in the kitchen, each of us move in the more languid movements of the weekend.  

While I may have lingered later, I hustled to the table with immediate business – there was a box score I was anticipating – and when I got a glimpse, there, he’d done it again.  I had to share my wonder and blurted out:  "Mom, the Dodgers have this rookie who's won all 7 of his games and only given up 2 runs."  

But mom knew how to question a narrative:  "Is there something odd about his delivery?"  

"Yeah, he's a lefty and right before he pitches he looks at the sky."  I wondered how she knew but was completely undeterred.

"Better wait 'til he goes around the League again to get too excited."

You don't hear that much anymore.  In the age of video, batters don’t wait to see a pitcher the first time, much less the second, to learn about his stuff and motion.  And, teams today have 4 times the opponents that teams had 50 years ago, making the tight two-to-three-week spiral around the league that bore the phrase a forgotten relic.

Whether mom was right or wrong in her suspicions regarding the new, unseen LA phenom, by the end of the summer, I've got to say, she sure seemed prescient.  

Still, whether you’re in elementary school or not, the power of a pitcher’s first 8 starts rendering 8 complete-game victories with only 4 runs surrendered is almost limitless.  

Limitless especially when it fills a void.

* * *

In his Fernando entry in the new eBook Hall of Nearly Great, Eric Nusbaum observes that as Fernandomania grew to a religious pique, Vin Scully served as the ideal proselytizer to see that the spark of Valenzuela's performance was properly fanned into a public frenzy.  "Scully's propensity for long silences,” Nusbaum says, “only added to the fervor by allowing those wildly exuberant early crowds to speak and scream for themselves."  

Replay an iconic oration – choose any speech or sportcaster’s call -- and you’ll realize silence is a tool as powerful as any utterance.  Silence potentiates word and word amplifies silence.  But then, really, there is no silence -- an good orator knows when his/her silence will be filled by the thrill of a crowd.

* * *

Those who spend copious time discussing Baseball History often talk about what work-stoppages cost.  Cost Tim Raines.  Cost baseball in Montreal.  Cost the sport in goodwill.  Cost the '81 Cincinnati Reds.  The few handfuls of players whose careers spanned '81-'94 lost three-quarters of a season to work stoppages.  We sometimes try to fill-in that vacuum of time when the baseball stage stood dark.  Tony Gwynn had “x” chance to hit .400, Matt Williams was on pace to . . ., Barry would have ended his career with . . .

Both at the time and ever since, I’ve always thought that the effects on players’ careers had been strictly negative – they’d lost time, lost stats; who could have benefited from that?*  But didn’t Fernando benefit?  For the two months of stoppage, the legend of Fernando stood unchallenged -- our hero's inevitable fall remained suspended.  The narrator of The Great Unraveling of The Story of Baseball knew just when to stop the narrative to realize the full weight of “Fernandomania.”

*Okay, Steve McCatty, probably benefited.  He was not likely to have ever led the league in Wins in a full season.  And Pete Vukovich, who tied him that year, could go right back to obscurity the next season, right?

Essentially the Strike took a five-week phenomenon and made it last . . . how long?  Four months?  A season?  Forever?

After his 8-0 start, Fernando Valenzuela was 5-7 with a 3.66 ERA in 1981.  After the 8-0 start, Fernando Valenzuela was 163-153 with a 3.65 ERA for his career.  

None of which is to say that Fernando was not a good pitcher.  He was above average for many years and then somewhat below, but serviceable for many years -- and let's all say it together, "there's a lot of value in being average."  Fernando fielded his position well and hit well (okay, he only walked every other year).  By the numbers, he was a solid, unremarkable pitcher who you'd take on your team in a second.

And yet, he was remarkable.  He looked like no one else.  Moved like no one else.  He did not meet our expectations of what a pitcher should be, of what someone who looked like him could do.  And through it all, he was nonplussed even as we were agog.  He would take some getting used to. Just as mom said.

* * *

Without a strike, the myth of Fernando probably would have dissipated as spring turned to summer.  After those opening 8 starts with just 4 earned runs allowed, Fernando gave up 4, 4, 7, 2, 7 & 2 earned runs his six remaining starts before the Strike began on June 12th.  Just before Fernando completely fell back to the League, the Strike came and froze his numbers. 

Fernandomania was unsustainable by anything but a stoppage of time.  And, oddly, a stoppage of time was exactly what occurred.

For two months without games, the Legend of Fernando stood unchallenged.  With no new baseball to talk about, fans just continued bantering about what was newest.  What would have been a quick, twinkling flash became a supernova visible even in the daytime for 2 months. 

In Baseball’s silence, the cheers of the fans amplified the story. 

For two months, Fernando was frozen at 9-4, 2.45 ERA & leading the League.  For two months, he was the catalyst driving a first-place team, as the Dodgers remained a half-game ahead of Cincinnati.  None of that was likely to continue.  Fernando was going to fall back to Earth.  Cincinnati was probably going to catch the Dodgers.  By mid-summer, the whole thing could have shimmered out of existence like a Sonoran mirage.

And then, just as Time prepared to start again, Commissioner Bowie Kuhn made the ephemeral permanent by announcing that, based on those first 57 games, the Dodgers were winners of the NL West's first-half.  As the declared winners of the mini-season, the Dodgers were already in the post-season. 

The Reds would finish 1981 with 3 more wins and 5 fewer losses than the Dodgers, and the Reds would go home.  The Dodgers would barely play .500 ball after the Strike and they would go on to win the World Series. 

With their once-in-the-history-of-baseball reprieve, the Dodgers would go down in history, rather than as the second-place also ran whose rookie phenom couldn't sustain his brilliance.  Tommy Lasorda won his first World Series, and maybe the chance to stick around for his second.  Fernando, at 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA for a post-season club got a lot more Cy Young votes than a ~16-12 with a ~2.83 ERA Fernando playing for a second-place team.  Maybe Seaver (14-2, 2.54) would collect another Cy Young or Nolan (11-5, 1.69) would get his one & only.

Maybe Fernando loses his regality.  Maybe without that mystique, he pitches only 10 more years and loses the chance at that second wind in his 30’s. 

Whatever would have happened, I’m glad we’ve got Fernando as he is.  The work stoppages robbed us, fan and player, of a lot.  But, man, I tell you -- if Baseball, by shutting up and letting the crowd roar, gave us the myth of Fernando, it may have all been worth it.

When Panda Comes Back

In a few days Pablo Sandoval will return from his his hamstring injury and take his place in an altered lineup.  Since The Panda last appeared on July 24th, Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence have been added to manager Bruce Bochy's palette.  The question, thus, arises:  who does Panda's return push aside?

When Marty Lurie posed the question on KNBR's postgame show last night, he saw the lineup pressure threatening shortstop Brandon Crawford -- "do you let Scutaro and Arias handle the shortstop position and sit Crawford with Pablo coming back?" (or something like that).

Who Marty did not mention was Theriot.  You can understand why -- all season long Theriot has been touted as the "Veteran Presence", as the "Gamer".  And that's fine; he's been solid in the field, and his bat was a definite improvement over Burriss'.  But now, with Scutaro, the Giants have an opportunity to upgrade their offensive production from Second Base yet again.  Consider:

Extra Bases in 2012:
Miguel Cabrera - 73
Buster Posey - 71
Angel Pagan - 50
Pablo Sandoval - 45
Brandon Belt - 35
Gregor Blanco - 33
Brandon Crawford - 31
Ryan Theriot - 15

Put another way -- every how-many At Bats can we expect Giants' players to get an extra base?

AB per Extra Base:
Posey - 4.9
Sandoval - 5.2
Cabrera - 5.7
Belt - 7.0
Pagan - 7.8
Blanco - 8.8
(Cain - 9.6)
Crawford - 9.9
(Bumgarner - 12.5)
. . .
Theriot 19.3

If Buster goes 2 days without an extra base hit, it would be unfortunate, for Crawford 3 days.  Theriot, meanwhile, could easily go a week.  Deadly.

I can hear the protests of "he's your 2nd-place hitter, he can handle the bat, move runners along".  The reality, however, is that he produces Double Plays at a rate faster than anyone other than Marty's other candidate to push Crawford aside -- Joaquin Arias.

Think about that -- Theriot is more likely to be doubled up than your catcher whose ankle needs to be nursed.  More likely to be doubled up than your thirdbaseman who is 30+ pounds over his optimum weight.

Look, Crawford is no Ernie Banks.  He's making outs like the factory's burning down around him, but he's got some semblance of pop and (while none of these folks we're talking about -- Crawford, Scutaro, Theriot & Arias -- is a defensive slouch) by all reviews his fielding is beyond excellent.

A lineup with Scutaro and Theriot (or Arias) up the middle will gain you a bit offense and cost you defense.

Scutaro and Crawford, on the other hand, will give you the same (or greater) offensive gain and cost you nothing on the other end.

Putting Up Crooked Numbers

Every batter comes to the plate to generate runs for his team.  Ideally, each batter would like to come around to score following each plate appearance.  Of course, that starts with getting on base, or, better still, hitting for extra bases, and it continues with running the bases well.

That's right, getting on base, slugging and sound base running increase runs.  Not revolutionary, I know, but it's remarkable how those skills can be dismissed -- or other skills touted as more important.

So, which Giants come around to score most?  Batting higher in the order is clearly an advantage as one will be getting on before the team's better hitters (and also will lead off innings more often).  As a team  the Giants score following 10.5% of their plate appearances.

Here's the list of those with 100+PA (and we'll throw in Brett Pill, too, since he's back):

Runs (percent of PA leading to a Run Scored)
Melky Cabrera - 15.7%
Pablo Sandoval - 14.1%
Gregor Blanco - 13.8%
Buster Posey - 10.9%
GIANTS - 10.5%
Emmanuel Burriss - 10.4%
Angel Pagan - 10.3%
Ryan Theriot - 10.1%
Brandon Belt - 9.3%
Hector Sanchez - 9.0%
Brett Pill - 8.2%
Joaquin Arias - 7.7%
Nate Schierholtz - 7.7%
Brandon Crawford - 7.3%


Who's more successful as the leadoff hitter?  Gregor Blanco scores in 14.4% of the time when batting 1st while Angel Pagan scores 11.2% of the time.

Coming up with 2 out and a runner on offers little chance of scoring oneself, but a decent chance of driving in a run, so to balance things for those who bat later in the line up let's ask:  who drives the most runs per Plate Appearance?  Extra-base hits clearly help here, too.

RBI per 100 PA
Hector Sanchez - 18.0
Buster Posey - 16.2
Pablo Sandoval - 12.9
Melky Cabrera - 12.0
Brandon Belt - 11.7
Brett Pill - 10.6
GIANTS - 9.9
Brandon Crawford - 9.4
Nate Schierholtz - 8.7
Angel Pagan - 8.6
Gregor Blanco - 8.0
Ryan Theriot - 7.4
Joaquin Arias - 6.8
Emmanuel Burriss - 4.2


Coming out below average on both lists is probably a good indication of not doing much to help the team offensively.  Angel Pagan & Ryan Theriot, despite "gamer" status, probably will need to step aside for more Gregor Blanco and Marco Scutaro (when Pablo returns and Scutaro can flip over to 2b).  Brandon Crawford also doesn't come out well in either list, but hitting before the pitcher carries the double-wammy of being pitched around in some AB's when you have a chance to drive in a run and also of having the pitcher kill innings when you do get on.  And, really, what's the Giants' alternative?

Brandon Belt again shows well -- better than he seems to get credit for from management, television broadcasters, writers and many fans -- though Hector Sanchez comes out amazingly well in limited PA's (small sample-size warnings) and he may prompt the shifting of Posey to 1b more often once he gets back on the field.

Throwing these numbers together to balance the advantages of batting early and late:

Runs Produced per PA
Melky Cabrera - .276
Buster Posey - .271
Hector Sanchez - .271
Pablo Sandoval - .270
Gregor Blanco - .218
Brandon Belt - .210
GIANTS - .204
Angel Pagan - .190
Brett Pill - .188
Ryan Theriot - .176
Brandon Crawford - .167
Nate Schierholtz - .163
Emmanuel Burriss - .146
Joaquin Arias - .144